Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals tips off tonight as the Philadelphia 76ers face off against the Miami Heat. Both teams are very capable of making a title run, however injuries could plague the way for both of them. Sixers star Joel Embiid is out for at least two games, while Kyle Lowry remains out for the Heat tonight. With a key player out for each team, adjustments will be key for the teams as well as us bettors.
Game 1 tips off from American Airlines Arena in Miami tonight at 7:30 pm ET on TNT.
The Betting Angles:
Tonight’s line is set at Miami -7.5 and the Heat are -350 moneyline, while Philadelphia is +7.5 and +280 to win outright.
Philadelphia as a road underdog of between 6.5 to 12 points it is just 2-3 against the spread and 2-10 against the spread the last three years. On the other side Miami is 7-7 against the spread as a large home favorite and 20-9 ATS the last three seasons.
Why Miami can win and cover:
Defense defense defense. The Heat are a team that has the ability to switch multiple defenders out on guards and inside to the paint. Without Joel Embiid tonight, Miami gets to focus most of their defensive effort on James Harden, who has a lot to prove in this series. Expect Miami to have a similar approach in guarding Harden as they did with Trae Young in the last series. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro have both had spectacular shooting games respectively in this playoffs, which they are sure to continue at home tonight. Miami has been clicking on all cylinders recently, which could allow them to jump out to a 1-0 lead.
Why Philadelphia can win and cover:
The Sixers are a somewhat streaky team, especially on the offensive end. With no Embiid tonight, James Harden will have no choice but to become the guy for Philly. Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris definitely have the ability to explode for career nights as well, but it’s no doubt that this team will be run by Harden tonight. If the James Harden of Houston can return tonight while receiving a big boost from someone in his supporting cast, the Sixers could sneak away with a road win.
The Pick: Take Miami -7.5
It seems unlikely that the 76ers will be able to compete at a high level for the entirety of the game against the Heat. Miami is extremely versatile and very difficult to beat on their own floor. Without Embiid for Philly it will simply be too much for James Harden and company to handle. Expect the Heat to win with class tonight on their home court to take a 1-0 series lead.
