After a perfect night on Friday, we're now 7-2 in our last nine picks for the NBA. We're looking to stay hot on a night that features a smaller slate, headlined by a meeting between the shorthanded Golden State Warriors and the Denver Nuggets on NBA TV.
1. Houston Rockets at Miami Heat - 7:30 p.m. ET
The Rockets are coming off of a stunning 11-point win over the Memphis Grizzlies last night, and they'll now look to keep it rolling in this meeting with the Heat. Playing the second night of a back-to-back is never easy — especially when going on the road for the second one — but this spread is absurdly large for a talented Houston team. Jalen Green has started to figure things out this season, as he's averaging 22.3 points per game in March so far. Christian Wood is also playing well this month, as he's averaging 22.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game in March. With those two in the mix, along with a guy like Kevin Porter Jr., it's hard to see Miami running away with this game completely. It also doesn't hurt that the Heat can win this game by a significant amount and still not cover, which just shows you how wild this spread is. Since 1996, this Miami team also happens to be just 12-26 against the spread when playing at home against teams that are outscored by 9.0 or more points per game. Perhaps the Heat will overlook their opponents here. The Rockets are also 3-2 against the spread in their last five.
THE PICK: Rockets +15
2. Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs - 8:30 p.m. ET
Over the last three seasons, the Spurs are 25-41 against the spread at home when facing teams that average at least 23.0 assists per game. San Antonio is also just 39-56 against the spread in home games in that span, and the Spurs are now in danger of losing their fifth game in a row when they face a Lakers team that is coming off a big win over the Golden State Warriors. The Lakers are actually 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread in their last five trips to San Antonio, and LeBron James is coming off a game in which he had 56 points and 10 rebounds in a win over the Warriors. It's possible that the sense of urgency has finally kicked in for Los Angeles, with the team now realizing that LeBron needs to go nuclear as a scorer the rest of the way in order for the team to make the playoffs. Look for him to once again play with some serious intensity against the Spurs, if he ends up playing. He's questionable for this one, so make sure you're checking on his status. Los Angeles isn't worth taking unless LeBron plays.
THE PICK: Lakers +2.5
3. New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings - 10:30 p.m. ET
The Knicks are coming off of a huge win over the Los Angeles Clippers last night, but the second night of a road back-to-back is tough — especially when facing a team that has more talent. Domantas Sabonis should be able to really dominate this game on the inside, and it's hard to see the Knicks having much of an answer for De'Aaron Fox's speed at the point guard position. On top of that, Sacramento will be able to throw guys like Donte DiVincenzo and Davion Mitchell on whoever has the hot hand for New York. Both are very good perimeter defenders, capable of throwing great players off their games. The Knicks also happen to be just 2-10 against the spread when coming off a road win this season. They've lost those games by an average of 7.7 points per game. New York is also 7-16 against the spread as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this year.
THE PICK: Kings -3.5
