The Milwaukee Bucks will look to close things out when they host the Chicago Bulls for Game 5 from the Fiserv Forum this evening on TNT. The two NBA Central teams split the first two matchups in Milwaukee, but the Bucks have won the last two games in blowout fashion. The Bucks open as 12-point favorites here.
Recent Trends
Chicago is 2-6 straight up over its last eight games, as its play has steadily declined since the All-Star break. Since the start of April the Bulls are just 3-6 against the spread after being one of the more profitable teams in the league this season.
Milwaukee is 6-2 straight up over their last eight games, and they are serious threats to repeat if All-Star swingman Khris Middleton is able to return before the ECF. The Bucks are 4-4 against the spread during that span, but they’ve covered their last two handily. However, when heavy favorites at home this season the Bucks are just 10-15 against the spread.
Why Chicago can cover
Does Chicago have one more fight in them? The Bulls proudly covered both spreads in the first two games in Milwaukee, and even provided loyal bettors with a big upset victory in Game 2. It’s not impossible, especially with such a large margin, but just how much does this Bulls team have left. Zach LaVine’s absence due to health protocols could just be the final nail in their season.
Head coach Billy Donavan had one of his best seasons as a pro ball coach with Chicago this season, but their 2021-22 season could be coming to a close this evening. The Bulls were one of the more efficient and exciting teams in the league, despite their low three-point usage. Chicago scored 111.8 points per game this season, while shooting 48% from the field.
A heroic effort from Demar DeRozan will be necessary if the Bulls would like their season to go on. DeRozan over 29.5 points (-113) may be an interesting bet in this Game 5. The 13-year vet enjoyed a career revival after coming over to the Windy City from San Antonio over the summer. DeRozan averaged a career-high 27.9 points per game this season, and he’s scored 40 against the Bucks twice this season.
LaVine’s absence could result in an uptick for Nikola Vucevic here. The former USC big has double-doubled in three of the first four matchups, and he scored 24 points in the games 1 & 2 in Milwaukee. Vucevic’s point total is set at 20.5 in tonight’s game. The big man averaged a double-double for eighth time in his career, and his props should be solid here, possibly for the final time this season.
Why Milwaukee can cover
Milwaukee will have a good chance of covering the massive margin here. Chicago comes in even more shorthanded than usual with LaVine set to miss this one, and this gives the Bucks a grand opportunity to close things out here at home and prepare for the Boston Celtics team that just swept Brooklyn.
Mike Budenholzer’s hall-of-fame emerging resume added a fourth 50-win season to it, and his team looks like real threats to repeat this season. The Bucks dealt with injuries all throughout the season, and they managed to stay impressive and afloat. Milwaukee ranked third in the NBA in scoring at 114.8 points per game, while ranking fourth in three-pointers made (1153).
Giannis Antetokounmpo enjoyed another MVP caliber season this year, and he has his eyes set on even more hardware. Two vintage road performances against Brooklyn and Philly late last month reminded the league who was still reigning, and the Greek Freak hasn’t let up here in the postseason. After posting a career-high of 29.9 points per game this season, Giannis is posting strong averages of 27.5 points per game, 14.5 rebounds per game, and seven assists per game.
Jrue Holiday continues to prove his worth after coming over in what was originally viewed as an overpay. Holiday represents the best two-way guard in the NBA, and he truly thrives on both ends of the floor for this Milwaukee team. With Middleton out, Holiday has delivered offensively, and he scored 26 points and hit a playoff-best five threes in the Game 4 win over Chicago.
The pick: Milwaukee 1H -5.5
It’s massive, but the Bulls simply may not have much more fight left after four games of Giannis and with no Zach Lavine, or defensive stud Alex Caruso available, this one could get ugly for a third straight time. Look for Milwaukee to wrap things up here with a win and cover.
