Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals tips off tonight between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. The Heat stole Game Three on the road in quite the dramatic game, with plenty of injuries (and comebacks) on each side. The Celtics will look to even the series up tonight while they’re still at home, in order to avoid a 3-1 deficit heading back to South Beach.
Tyler Herro will be out for Miami, while Jimmy Butler is listed as probable. Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are also listed as probable for tonight’s game.
Game Four tips off from TD Garden in Boston at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN.
The Betting Angles:
Tonight’s line sees the Celtics at -7 with a moneyline of -320. The Heat are +7 with a +250 moneyline.
Why the Celtics can win and cover -7:
Boston's offense has been spectacular in the playoffs, scoring 113.6 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics also committed a ridiculous amount of turnovers in Game 3, so it’s very unlikely that they will be as sloppy as they were that night again. Boston’s defense is headlined by Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown on the perimeter, which is why they hold opposing teams to just 32.7% on threes. Boston came up just short of a roaring comeback in Game Three while being incredibly sloppy with the ball. If Boston takes care of the ball tonight they should be able to tie up this series.
Why Miami can win and cover +7:
Miami has shown they can bounce back from anything after getting blown out on their home floor in Game 2. Bam Adebayo stepped up in a huge way last game, scoring 31 points and grabbing 10 boards. Victor Oladipo will be a huge piece again tonight for Miami with Jimmy Butler not being at 100%. Oladipo was a steal machine against Boston in the second half, and was a large contributor to Miami’s franchise record 19 steal game. Miami also has played terrific paint defense, only allowing 38 points in the paint per game. If Miami’s defense continues to play at this intensity they could go back home with a commanding 3-1 series lead.
The Pick: Take Miami +7
While Boston is poised to bounce back tonight, seven points is a steep margin to expect against a Miami Heat team that has only had one ugly game in this series. If Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and Bam Adebayo are all in sync tonight, expect the Heat to keep this a close game, and maybe even win it.
