The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics will play Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals this Friday night at 9:00PM ET from the Boston Garden on TNT. The Celtics will look to close out and make their first trip to the Finals since 2010. The Celtics come into this one as eight-point favorites.
Why Miami can cover
We’re about to see what Miami is made of this evening. One of the toughest teams in the league will head into a hostile environment with a lot of points on their side, but they come in very banged up, and an upset feels like an uphill battle.
Miami is going as far as Jimmy Butler takes them tonight. The star wing was on a tear this postseason prior to a knee injury altering his last two performances. Playoff Jimmy is a real thing, and with his total sitting at a manageable 22.5 (-118), Butler’s over may be appealing with the season on the line.
Bam Adebayo will need to have a huge showing as well. The 3x All-NBA defender has a big 31-point showing in Game 3, and he’ll need to channel that same energy for this potential closeout game. Adebayo’s total sits at 16.5 (-106), a number he’s hit in two of his last three games, and it feels manageable considering the volume he’s receiving.
Miami is essentially limping into this game and it will take a valiant effort to get this series back to South Beach. They’re tough to bet on right now due to their overall team health, but with their backs against the wall, somebody has to show up for this Heat team. Here are a few more spots we like:
Victor Oladipo o8.5 PTS (-127)
A volume play for Victor, he shattered this number in his last performance in Boston, and it could be worth a play if Tyler Herro sits.
Max Strus o2.5 3PM (+135)
There’s some value on this prop for one of the more consistent shooters in the NBA this season. Strus is a bit banged up himself, but he’s a shooter, and he’s hit this number in four of his last seven games.
Bam Adebayo o9.5 REB (+105)
Bam is the healthiest member of the band left, and while his rebounding has been all over the place this postseason, he’ll receive the run to record his third double-double in his last four games.
P.J. Tucker o5.5 REB (-124)
The Shoe King is 37 years of age and he could be heading into the final game of his career. Look for Tucker to bring his lunch pale again, and potentially cash a prop he’s hit in four of his last six games.
Why Boston can cover
There’s no reason for Boston to let this series get back to South Beach, and a strong closeout effort in front of their home crowd would be ideal here. Miami’s overall health has them at a disadvantage, and the Celtics have them where they want them.
Jayson Tatum has a chance to add his name to a very special list of Celtics this summer, and he has a chance to deliver a signature performance here at home. If he comes out and gets things going early, Tatum’s over of 27.5 (-118) is more than manageable, just be mindful of both Miami’s defense and a potential blowout.
If you’re giving Tatum a look, you should give his running mate Jaylen Brown a look as well. JB has really come into his own this postseason, averaging personal bests across the board, while even scoring a playoff-high 40 points in Game 3. Brown’s total sits at 24.5 (-110), which could either cut close or be shattered. He’s only hit this number twice in this series, finishing at 24 points twice.
Boston’s dynamic duo and role players have been profitable this postseason, and here are a few more manageable spots we like:
Jayson Tatum o6.5 REB (-110)
JT has grown into a steady rebounder, and after hitting this number in back-to-back games, the former Duke swingman could be in for another strong night on the glass.
Grant Williams o1.5 3PM (-107)
The last time we saw Grant Williams in a closeout game, he buried a career-high seven threes. The aura of that is enough to give the third-year player a look this evening.
Marcus Smart o3.5 REB (-105)
Smart’s three’s are usually the route to go with him, but the reigning DPOY has been crashing the boards this Spring, and he’s number in each of his last six games.
Jayson Tatum o5.5 AST (+105)
Tatum’s ability to facilitate has also grown, and after flirting with a triple-double last time out, his assists prop could be a nice play due to his ball usage.
The pick: Boston Celtics 1H up to -5
