The Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors will tip off the NBA Finals this Thursday from the Chase Center in San Francisco at 9:00PM ET on ABC. The Warriors come into this matchup as four-point favorites.
The Celtics have won six of the last seven meetings dating back to 2019, including a double-digit win in San Francisco back in March.
Why Boston can cover
Boston’s path to the NBA FInals has proved that they can compete with any team in the league, and while they encounter a hostile Chase Center crowd this evening, they shouldn’t be counted out.
Jayson Tatum can complete one of the best postseason runs in NBA history with a standout performance here in the Finals. Tatum has stood toe-to-toe with Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jimmy Butler, and now he must conquer the Splash Brothers (Steph Curry and Klay Thompson). JT’s going to have to work on both sides of the ball in this one, so while his point total may be hard to gauge, we like Tatum to grab over 7.5 rebounds (-108) in this spot, especially if and when Golden State elects to go small. JT has also grown into a solid facilitator this season, and he’s the Celtics secondary ball handler behind Marcus Smart, who is bound to have a busy series defensively. Look for Tatum to hover and cover over 4.5 assists (-132) in Game 1, as he has in six of his last eight games.
Jaylen Brown gives Boston arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league, as he’s really come into his own as a strong two-way threat this season. JB’s scoring may take a hit here in the Finals, but the three-point prop of over 2.5 (-134) feels very attainable for the series opener, as every team shoots more threes when playing Golden State.
Boston has received profitable contributions from their supporting cast throughout these Playoffs, including Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart and 15-year veteran Al Horford.
Marcus Smart has to avoid foul trouble, but if indeed the reigning DPOY stays clean, take the prop bet of him to make over 2.5 three-point shots (-111) tonight. Smart has taken six or more threes in five of his last seven games, and look for him to take his game to another level here in the NBA Finals. Smart has also snatched over 4.5 rebounds (+121) in five of his last seven contest, so this is another smart prop bet for Game 1.
If the Celtics' Robert Williams is indeed a victim of small ball, look for AL Horford to capitalize on the glass and snatch over 8.5 rebounds (-143) to open this Finals. The former Florida big has collected nine or more boards in six of his last eight games.
Why Golden State can cover
Golden State has been here before and their experience can’t be overlooked. The Warriors return to the Finals feels like an organization that has come full circle. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are just two years removed from a span of five straight Finals appearances, so they’ve got a good shot to set the tone for this series early with a Game 1 home victory.
Stephen Curry doesn’t need a Finals MVP, but the addition of one would certainly bolster an already impressive resume, so look for him to put in some big games throughout this series. Curry’s point total consistently sits at over 27.5 (-102), so this is a smart bet to place for Game 1.
Predicting a big performance from Klay Thompson has been quite the task. Thompson has only scored 21 or more three times this postseason, with all three of those games coming at home, and two of them being 30-point outbursts. He’s been the ultimate boom or bust scorer, so be cautious when betting point totals for Klay in this one. However, we do like taking Thompson to make over 3.5 three pointers (+109) in the series opener, as he's one of the best all-time behind the arc.
Draymond Green, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins were very consistent in Golden State's triumph over Dallas in the Western Conference Finals.
Green is the heartbeat of the franchise and is excited to be in contention for another championship, so look for him to be active and motivated this series. We like him to secure over 8.5 rebounds (-109) in Game 1.
Andrew Wiggins has taken a similar role to Andre Igoudala/Harrison Barnes role and become more than just an athletic two-way wing player. He brings an aggressive attack that’s been thriving despite some inconsistencies. We like Wiggins to notch over 16.5 points (+110) tonight, as he's hit this number in seven of his last nine games. Also, the former KU swingman has been a menace on the glass at times this postseason, recording four double-doubles in his last eight games. It should be close, but we like Wiggins to go over 6.5 rebounds (+121) in tonight's contest.
Any one of these games at the Chase Center has a chance to be a Jordan Poole party. The spark plug out of Michigan will add some energy to the Warriors lineup throughout the series. Poole is a volume scorer, so expect him rack up over 15.5 points (-106) in the series opener, as he’s hit this total in three of his last five games.
The pick: Golden State -3.5
