The North Carolina Tar Heels and the UCLA Bruins will face off in the Sweet Sixteen this Friday. The winner of this matchup will punch their ticket to the Elite Eight and face the winner of the Purdue vs. Saint Peter’s matchup.
Recent Trends
UNC is 4-1 straight up over their last five games, with a loss to eventual ACC Tournament champion Virginia Tech. North Carolina has covered in all four wins, marking their longest stretches of covers this season. The Tar Heels come into the Big Dance winners of eight of their final ten games.
UCLA has won seven of their last eight games, with their lone defeat coming to Arizona in the Pac 12 Championship. After beating Akron in the first round, they dominated a veteran St. Mary’s team last time out, 72-56. The Bruins have covered in four of their last six games.
Why UNC can cover
UNC has the size to give UNC trouble. The Tar Heels demonstrated all season they have the ability to play from the inside against any team. After leading the ACC in points in the paint, UNC will likely lean on their strengths here, and they’ll carry a distinctive size advantage over the Bruins.
Armando Bacot enjoyed an ACC POY-caliber season, and he’ll be counted on heavily to deliver for the Tar Heels this March. The 6’10 big has emerged as a walking double-double threat this season, and he carried the team to late season road victories over in-state rivals Duke and NC State.
Sophomore guards Caleb Love and RJ Davis have taken a big second-year leap in the Tar Heel backcourt, with the former averaging a strong 15.4 points per game. Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek compliments Bacot well in the frontcourt, and he’s hit multiple threes in four of his last six games.
Why UCLA can cover
UCLA has been here before. The Bruins came really close last season, and with the field wide open, this strong group of guards has a good chance at redemption. All four guards scored 14 or more while shooting 50% or better against St. Mary’s, and a replicated performance could put them over the top once again.
Mick Cronin’s team is scoring 73.6 points per game, while allowing 64.2 points per game this season.
Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have got the Bruins in position to raise a banner once again. Juzang led the team in scoring (15.7) this season, but Jaquez Jr. has taken on a bigger role this March, scoring 18 or more four times.
Tyger Campbell paced the team with 16 points in the win over the Gaels, and he’s reached double figures in four straight games. Jules Bernard gives the Bruins another shot creator, capable of heating up at any time.
The pick: UCLA -2.5
